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Warning Analysis for the Information Age

John W. Bodnar

U.S Government Printing Office, 2003

QUESTION: How Can We Provide Warning Intelligence in an Age of WMD and Terrorism?

Changes in technology in the past half century have destroyed the ability to provide warning intelligence by traditional means. Technological changes in the past half century have led to the rise of WMD and terrorism. The changing tempo of the WMD and terrorist threats has virtually destroyed the ability to provide tactical or strategic warning. A new kind of strategic warning is required for WMD and terrorism. How can we rethink our assumptions on intelligence to redefine methodologies to provide strategic warning?

HYPOTHESIS: A New Intelligence Model for the Information Age

New methodologies for warning intelligence can be developed based on quantum thinking rather than Newtonian thinking. Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) are precipitated by new developments in technology that ultimately change not only strategies and operations but organizations as well. Our current strategies and organizations are based on Industrial Age technologies built by Newtonian thinking. Strategies and organizations for the Information Age must be built on quantum thinking. In a paradigm shift, one asks the same question and gets a different answer. The difference depends on the underlying assumptions one makes about the world. Therefore, we must re-examine the assumptions of any paradigm to know when it can be used accurately. The core assumption of Newtonian calculus is that the world is continuous and single-valued. The real world is, however, digital and multi-state. Any kind of model we use to describe the world returns answers that are directly dependent on its underlying core assumptions. An examination of the mismatch of Newtonian models with real world systems - especially biological systems that include human organizations, cultures, and tools - indicates that several Newtonian assumptions we currently use to analyze those systems' functions provide misleading and/or incomplete assessments.

This analysis also points toward the basis of a New Science based on quantum methods, which assume that the world is digital and multi-state. Data can be "massive" both in quantity and type. A major problem in exploiting the massive quantities available to the Intelligence Community is the lack of a historical baseline and a lack of librarians and curators to organize and tag the data for easy retrieval. This means that we must develop methods for rapid writing of classified history and for systematic data archiving. Data can also be "massive" in its dimensionality. Collecting and analyzing massive amounts of data will not provide valid assessments unless the dimensionality of the data reflects the dimensionality of the problem. We need to analyze changes required in organizational structures to go from Industrial Age organizations for the Cold War to Information Age organizations needed to combat WMD and terrorism proliferation networks.

MODELS: Toward Information Age Intelligence: Building a Plan for Building a Plan

Models are mental maps by which we make decisions. Rethinking how the best exploit the Decision Cycle for the Information Age requires modeling the target, modeling ourselves, and modeling how we model.

Modeling the Decision Cycle. Biological Systems are defined by what they do rather than what they are. Dynamic models for biological systems including organisms and organizations can be built using the Decision Cycle or OODA Cycle developed by COL John Boyd.

Modeling the Target. How do we find out the adversary's strategic plan? Step 1 in building Warning Analysis for the Information Age is to build a methodology for Multidimensional Analysis (MDA) to model the target that accounts for his strategic planning and his need for a two decision cycle planning process to build WMD or CBRNE.

Modeling How We Model. How can we provide strategic analysis to build our own strategic plan? Step 2 in building Warning Analysis for the Information Age is to model how we think - build and test hypotheses - to provide strategic warning so that we can then develop tools to help automate the process.

Modeling Ourselves. How can we reorient our intelligence process to empower analysts to think strategically? Step 3 in building Warning Analysis for the Information Age is to "reorient the arrows" within the IC - both the information flow and leadership interactions - to provide mechanisms built on Information-Age thinking and thereby be as close to a network as possible. The key to doing this will be to empower the analyst to build a new Orientation based on the hyperword.

PROSPECTUS: Building a New Model for the Intelligence Community

We have the methods, tools, and organizations to reorient the IC toward Information-Age intelligence that can build strategic warning. Can we find the leadership to get there?

Getting there from Here. How can we reorient our intelligence process to think strategically given that we have organizations that are designed to act tactically?

Toward an Information-Age IC - How Long Will It Take? Changing cultures usually requires generations. Can we reorient IC culture to from the Newtonian paradigm to a Quantum paradigm in a shorter time than it took the Navy to go from sail to steam or to go from segregated to integrated?

Can We Shift a Paradigm in a Single Generation? Potentially we can short-circuit the slow pace of the MTR-RMA-RMC progression to begin to build an Information-Age IC by beginning a program to capture the knowledge of senior analysts and to educate the rising analytical leadership to reorient the IC. But we must take step to do so now or the opportunity will be lost for at least another decade.